New on Sports Illustrated: UFC 256: Derrick Lewis vs. Ciryl Gane - MMA Betting & DFS Preview

A heavyweight interim title bout featuring Derrick Lewis vs. Ciryl Gane headlines this UFC event's main card

UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane

#UFC265 MMA Betting Preview

Expect a fired-up crowd Saturday night, as hometown heavyweight #2 Derrick Lewis (25-7) takes on #3 Ciryl Gane (9-0) in the night's main event, which is slated to award the winner the interim heavyweight title less than five months after current heavyweight champ, Francis Ngannou defeated Stipe Miocic to become the heavyweight king. While Ngannou left to spend some time in his native Cameroon after winning the belt, the UFC opted to move forward with the interim title fight, where the winner Saturday night will face Ngannou down the road.

Fan-favorite Lewis, who holds the record for most knockouts in the heavyweight division, will have a tough test in extending his record, as the Frenchman, Gane, has impressed, running his record to 9-0 since entering the world of MMA. In the co-main event, former featherweight champion #5 Jose Aldo (29-7) will face #9 Pedro Munhoz (19-5) in a bantamweight fight that has fireworks written all over it.

Saturday night’s event will be held in front of a sold-out capacity crowd from the Toyota Center in Houston, with the early prelims live on ESPN+ beginning at 6 p.m. ET, followed by the televised prelims on ESPN at 8 p.m. ET, with the five-fight pay-per-view kicking off at 10 p.m. ET.

EVENT DETAILS

• DATE: SATURDAY 08/7/21
• BROADCAST: PPV – Prelims: ESPN
• VENUE: Toyota Center
• LOCATION: Houston, Texas
• # of MATCHES: 13

TAKES, PREDICTIONS & BETS

HEAVYWEIGHT INTERIM TITLE BOUT (265 LBS): #2 DERRICK LEWIS (25-7) VS. #3 CIRYL GANE (9-0)

Derrick Lewis making the walk here in front of his hometown is truly his Super Bowl win. After the 12 fight build-up to this main event, and a packed crowd deep into their night’s beverage intake, the Toyota Center will be rocking, and it will be a very one-sided backing for Lewis. Lewis looks as if he's put in preparation for this one well above and beyond any previous fight, though his toolset hasn’t changed. His path to victory is exactly what you think it is: one massive shot that connects from his very selective, low-volume output. All it takes is one clean shot from the "Black Beast," as we've seen 20 times in the past, with a few of those coming late in the fight with Lewis down on the cards. Gane will be a tough one to catch, given his far more technical ability on the feet. He will control the distance and work it in his favor as he picks Lewis apart with jabs while taking the fight to the mat when Lewis attempts to close. I expect this fight to get going very fast, as Lewis will be looking to engage out of the shoots, as the buzz from the crowd will light a fire which in turn will cause Gane to counter with his offense early and often. Mistakes will be made at some point, and while Lewis always has that ability to turn his opponent’s lights off, Gane has more ways to win, and Lewis has been susceptible to cave to a compromising TKO position or even submission lock. Coming into this one, 78% of their combined 41 fights have not made the final bell. Fight to not go the distance at -200 is a gift with five rounds to work in this matchup.

Prediction: Ciryl Gane
Bet: Fight doesn't go to a decision (-200)

MORE NOTABLE FIGHTS

WELTERWEIGHT (170 LBS): #5 MICHAEL CHIESA (17-4) VS. #6 VICENTE LUQUE (20-7-1)

If you are looking for a dog on the card, Chiesa is probably the best spot. Luque is always dangerous on the feet with his striking and leg kicks, but Chiesa has been on a completely different level since moving up to 170. Luque tends to suck his opponents into a firefight while keeping the distance in his favor. Chiesa’s constant pressure and intent to close in for the takedowns will pose some issues, and he should be able to take Luque down. Chiesa is so heavy from the top, and although he's winning fights with like 10 significant strikes, his control time should add up.

Prediction: Michael Chiesa
Bet: Michael Chiesa +105

LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT (205 LBS): ALONZO MENIFIELD (10-2) VS. ED HERMAN (25-14)

Herman, the 40-year-old, comes into this fight with a three-fight win streak, though it could easily be 1-6 coming into this one. He's been down in fights, and his fight IQ and adjustments have rewarded him with a few come-from-behind wins on this run. I see this as a bad matchup for him with a fighter seven years younger standing in front of him in Alonzo Menifield. Herman more than likely will have problems taking Menifield to the mat (been taken down once since 2017), and while on the feet, he'll be at a disadvantage when it comes to speed, power, and most importantly, accuracy. Not helping the cause will be Herman's lackluster head-strike defense, and with him being the slower of the two fighters, Menifield should cause some damage.

Prediction: Alonzo Menifield
Bet: Menifield ML in a parlay or TKO prop (-125)

BANTAMWEIGHT (135 LBS): MILES JOHNS (11-1) VS. ANDERSON DOS SANTOS (21-8)

Dos Santos has been the underdog in all three of his UFC bookings coming into this one but has hung in there and ripped off a submission win in his last outing against Martin Day as a +150 dog. Johns suffered his first pro defeat back in February of 2020, a flying TKO knee followed with punches against Mario Bautista, but quickly got back in the win column with a KO himself of Kevin Natividad last October. Dos Santos is always in a fight but has limited accuracy on the feet and tends to get hit a lot. That said, Johns doesn't want to get into a war with Dos Santos and should play it smart and hit some takedowns along the way. Johns should have an endurance edge if this fight goes over the halfway point.

Prediction: Miles John
Bet: Miles John via decision +125

BANTAMWEIGHT (135 LBS): JOHNNY MUNOZ (10-1) VS. JAMEY SIMMONS (7-3)

Munoz probably will be chalky, but I like him in this spot. He's 10-1, and in his loss against Maness, he had a point taken away and ended up losing a close decision even though he out-landed Maness in significant strikes in every round. Munoz is slick on the mat with his transitions, and as long as he can take Simmons down, he should cruise to a decision with an outside shot at a submission.

Prediction: Johnny Munoz
Bet: Pair with Menifield in a parlay and consider the submission prop at +200

BET RECAP

• Gane/Lewis: Fight doesn't go to a decision (-200)
• Chiesa +105
• Menifield (consider TKO/KO -125)
• Johns via DEC +125
• J Munoz (consider SUB +200)
• Menifield/Munoz -115

FULL CARD PREDICTIONS

• CIRYL GANE defeats DERRICK LEWIS
• JOSE ALDO defeats PEDRO MUNOZ
• MICHAEL CHIESA defeats VICENTE LUQUE
• TECIA TORRES defeats ANGELA HILL
• CASEY KENNEY defeats SONG YADONG
• RAFAEL FIZIEV defeats BOBBY GREEN
• VINCE MORALES defeats DRAKO RODRIGUEZ
• ALONZO MENIFIELD defeats ED HERMAN
• KAROLINA KOWALKIEWICZ defeats JESSICA PENNE
• MANEL KAPE defeats ODE OSBOURNE
• MILES JOHNS defeats ANDERSON DOS SANTOS
• MELISSA GATTO defeats VICTORIA LEONARDO
• JOHNNY MUNOZ defeats JAMEY SIMMONS

UFC PREDICTION BET SUMMARY

• 2021 predictions: 163-119-6 (58%)
• 2021 wagers: 83-79-2 (51%)

Overall record

• Predictions: 544-318-17 (63%)
• Wagers: 293-166-8 (64%)

DFS PLAYS & STRATEGIES

• Choose active fighters. Coupling an active fighter on their way to a unanimous decision will give you key points for your team. Just like any other DFS traditional sport, you want the active, offensive player that scores. Key metrics here are SLpM and TD AVG/15min.
• Play the heavyweights. The approximate overall finish rate in the UFC is 54%. Most weight divisions range from 40%-60%, while the heavyweights push a 75% finish rate. You will receive bonus points for finishes inside the distance.
• Try always to include the main event or title fights. Five-round fights mean more time to rack up points if you pick the right fighter. In some cases, even if you have the loser, the points can be more than a three-round winner.
• Don't get excited and rush a pick based on stats; consider sample size. Some fighters have limited fights compared to their opponents when looking at metrics. Stats could be exaggerated. Do your research. Watch for spots with debuting fighters as well. Always check the records of the opponents they faced on their way to the UFC. Always pull fight tape as well. You’d be surprised at what you will find.
• Review methods of victory. I supply the finish rates within this article, and as you dive in, you can compare method of victory to method of loss for the matchups. For example, you can find matchups where Fighter A has a high % of submission victories matched up with Fighter B, with a high % of submission losses.

As mentioned in the tip sheet above, here’s my MMA DFS Heat Chart for UFC 265. As you can see, the chart is ranked based on fight finish odds. Fight finishes are where the points are at in MMA DFS. Take a glance at the stack, and we will break down the individual matchups below.

Two key offensive metrics are strikes and takedowns. They get off on their opponents; watch your points rack up quickly. Here's my Offensive Output Meter for the card. With this chart, you can compare historical fighter averages in these two key metrics as I rank all fighters participating Saturday.

Below is the differential for strikes landed vs. strikes absorbed per minute.

Here is the takedown average per 15 minutes and the opponent’s takedown defense percent.

UFC DFS RECOMMENDATIONS

• Fighters that typically press the action, land takedowns, and high finish rates matched up against those that get finished, roster. (see my charts above)

• Fights projected to NOT go to a decision
• Gane/Lewis -200
• Chiesa/Luque -110
• Menifield/Herman -300
• Kape/Osbourne -120
• Gatto/Leonardo -150
• Simmons/Munoz -150

• For the main event, I like Gane though he is spendy. I still think he hits value as long as he doesn't get clipped.

• Top-tier fighters to build around include: Menifield, J. Munoz, Kape

• Mid-tier fighter considerations are: Gatto, Torres, Aldo (if you build balanced. This looks to be more of a stars/scrubs week)

• Live 'dogs that could score: Chiesa, Hill with her volume in a close one, and of course Lewis if he can shock Gane.

Good luck, everyone. I hope to see some of you cashing after Saturday night!

Follow me on Twitter @Y2CASEY